Elsewhere, the presence of departing Liverpool great Mohamed Salah means Egypt (0.4%) are among the biggest threats from the bottom half of our projections. The supercomputer is a bit kinder to Uzbekistan (0.1%) and Jordan (0.1%), but both teams will still be doing well to get out of their groups. France became the sixth team to win as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then. Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time. They were Copa America runners-up on U.S. soil in 2024, only losing the final to Argentina in extra-time, and they also finished third in CONMEBOL qualifying. It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations join traditional World Cup heavyweights Argentina and Brazil as the top 10 teams tipped to challenge this summer.

Key Tactical Matchup

They were the only contender to come through the group stage with a perfect record, and they did it in the toughest group in the draw. Argentina are right behind them, on the opposite side of the bracket. Here is how the leading contenders stack up as the knockouts begin.

Final

They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia. Netherlands (3.6%) and Norway (3.5%) rank highest in terms of possible World Cup winners. The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final. Ancelotti is armed with attacking talent, having opted to select record goalscorer Neymar in addition to stars like Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Matheus Cunha.

How far will England and Scotland get?

With William Pacho and Moises Caicedo forming the spine of the team, they have the foundations required to frustrate even the elite nations. They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way. The Opta supercomputer gave the reigning world champions a 77.9 percent chance of victory across 25,000 pre-match simulations.

Part II. Knockout stage projections ⚽

Building momentum heading into a tournament is huge, and the vast majority of nations will play friendly matches with their strongest teams in close proximity to the tournament to build a rapport between the players. This involves two teams from CONCACAF and one team from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC. The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals, and the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in bracket semi-finals, with the winners of the two bracket finals reaching the FIFA World Cup 26.

• Vinicius Junior has battled inconsistency, while Raphinha’s form has been disrupted by injuries.
• Established in the UK — serving a global audience across Africa, Asia, and beyond.
• From the oldest coach in World Cup history to Lionel Messi’s and Kylian Mbappé’s chase for the all-time World Cup scoring record, history will likely be made this summer.
• There will likely be an experienced feel to their squad, led by Fulham striker Raúl Jiménez, who is only eight away from Javier Hernández’s all-time Mexico goal record of 52.
• Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.
• Senegal remain a dangerous dark horse, while Norway and Erling Haaland could disrupt the group.
• Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated.
• The Argentina ace’s supporters have been able to play a trump card whenever the debate about the two modern-day icons has been had since Messi’s heroics in Qatar.
• They’ve consistently found ways to advance deep into tournaments, and that experience matters.
• Behind the top three, a cluster of European nations all carry realistic hopes.
• This has all of the makings of a very, very interesting match, and we have found it difficult to pick a winner here.
• The Yahoo Sports soccer team has its picks for Golden Ball, Golden Boot, Golden Glove, biggest disappointments and more right here.
• Emerging teams from Africa and Asia could challenge traditional powerhouses, especially under the new format.

Betting Tips: How to Read and Use World Cup Predictions

On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament. If Norway advance through the group stage, Haaland’s clinical finishing and aerial ability make him the most likely top scorer. France beat Sweden 3-0 in a match that the model thought could get really out of hand, and it did. They’ve been excellent in this tournament, and Sweden’s attack-oriented mindset is generally a less effective strategy for pulling off an upset than Paraguay’s more defensive stance.

France vs. Spain

Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition. Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998 and this will be Kylian Mbappé’s first World Cup as France skipper. If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final.

There are charts showing each team’s chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, and precise odds for each game, including the likelihood of particular scores (e.g., Brazil 2-1). The most comprehensive World Cup 2026 predictions resource available. All 12 groups, outright winner analysis, Golden Boot picks, dark horse teams, and daily tips throughout the 38-day tournament from 11 June to 19 July 2026. Mexico failed to reach the knockout stage at the 2022 World Cup, having previously seen a Round of 16 exit every tournament from 1994 to 2018. History is not on their side in this matchup, as Switzerland arrive with a full-strength side built on midfield physicality and an elite attacking presence in Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder. Mexico will need an all‑around effort to advance under the new knockout format, relying on far more than home support to reach the next round.

Cape Verde’s dream debut is not over yet

Data-driven betting decisions always give you a better chance of placing winning bets, which demonstrates why it is so crucial which FIFA World Cup predictions that you decide to use, or opt against using. Three teams earn qualification for the FIFA World Cup, and two will bank their spots in the play-off tournament, with Canada, Mexico and the USA automatically entering due to being hosts. Six places are up for grabs for CONMEBOL teams, and it is a single-league format that simply decides which top six teams advance to the FIFA World Cup Finals. European teams face off in group stages to earn qualification from the World Cup, in what is considered to be the most competitive qualification process of them all. 16 teams qualify in total from the UEFA qualifiers, with 54 teams split into 12 groups. The top team from each group automatically qualifies for the FIFA World Cup Finals, whilst a 16-team play-off competition then decides the final four spots.

World Cup Day 1 scores, results: Korea tops Czechia after wild finish, Mexico handles South Africa in ugly affair

The final is on July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium, also known as MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which holds about 82,500 fans. The 2022 semifinalists are through from Group C, and we are tipping them to upset the Netherlands. France opened with a 3-1 win over Senegal and a 3-0 win over Iraq, then sealed Group I with a 4-1 win over Norway featuring an Ousmane Dembele hat-trick.

England are another nation with a strong squad, and they will be seeking to avenge their heartache in recent major competitions where they have fallen at the final hurdle or close to it. A total of 18 spots are earnt for these three different qualification processes in Asia (AFC), Africa (CAF) and Oceania (OFC). Furthermore, play-off spots will also feature teams from these continents too. But even I can not confidently say Colombia will beat France, the most impressive team of the group stage, in a final scenario. They’re deep, everyone’s scoring, they’re changing and there is just a wealth of talent to choose from.

• You can find a much more detailed overview of the model behind these forecasts here.
• With a 14.1% chance, France are the supercomputer’s second favourites, just behind Spain, who beat them 5-4 in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League in June.
• Among La Liga players, only Kylian Mbappé (48) had more goal involvements in all competitions this season than the winger’s 41 (24 goals and 17 assists).
• Messi has scored six goals in three World Cup 2026 group matches, meaning Cape Verde’s centre-backs Logan Costa and Roberto Lopes must track him constantly, which in turn creates space for Martinez and Alvarez to exploit.
• Southgate’s England teams were also solid at the back but rarely free-flowing.
• Peter Fitzpatrick is an experienced sports journalist, having worked in the industry since August 2022 following a mid-pandemic career change.
• With so much on the line in each and every game with players playing for pride and their nation, it means there are various different betting angles to target.
• Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet.
• They made it out of their group two-thirds of the time (66.1%), and a last-16 berth is a realistic objective, as this was achieved at a rate of 24.4%.
• It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model’s early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions.

The FIFA World Cup is one of the most highly-anticipated football events and commands enormous betting interest from players. Played every four years, teams battle it out for the Jules Rimet trophy and to have their name etched in history as World Cup winners. They are in an evenly matched pool, and while seen as the least likely team to win Group D, they still have a decent 17.9% hope of topping the table. The Socceroos are more likely than not to progress to the knockouts (59.2%) and have a 26.3% chance of reaching the last 16 to match their best-ever performance. All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final. The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer.

World Cup bracket predictions 2026: Expert picks for Round of 32 and every FIFA knockout game

Despite sitting a little below the top four nations, these sides are also contenders. If any of them capture form and momentum at the right time, they will prove tough to stop. A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks.

Where can I get daily World Cup 2026 match predictions?

Brobbey is expected to continue through the middle for Koeman’s team, with Memphis Depay, Justin Kluivert and Crysencio Summerville set to be kept in reserve. Curaçao are the smallest nation by both area and population to ever get this far and following their progress is one of many fascinating subplots to look out for in a World Cup that is not to be missed. New Zealand, meanwhile, have a 47.8% hope of finding a way out of Group G. That’s another tight pool, as Belgium are favourites, but Egypt and Iran are also expected to compete.

The action wraps up with Mexico hosting Ecuador at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and Mexico is the only team remaining in the tournament that hasn’t yet conceded a goal. The latest 2026 World Cup betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Mexico as -182 favorites to advance to the Round of 16, while Ecuador are +148 underdogs. However, SportsLine soccer expert Matt Severance is looking for a little added security by playing Mexico (tie no bet) for a -215 payout.

• South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early.
• That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
• Right now, though, France appears to have the edge in most departments.
• While they showed promise at UEFA EURO 2024, France enter with superior depth and balance.
• Sixteen venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 and 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104.
• From the opening match at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on 11 June 2026 to the Final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey on 19 July 2026, this page is your complete prediction hub.
• Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent.
• Despite sitting a point behind Ghana in Group L, Croatia are clear favourites to claim victory, according to the Opta supercomputer.
• Uzbekistan came out on top in 26.8 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 24.3 percent, leaving the Central Asian side with an outside chance of reaching the Round of 32.

Netherlands vs. Brazil

• Looking ahead all the way to the final, two teams stand out from the crowd.
• South Korea vs Bosnia & Herzegovina – Despite overcoming Italy in the qualifying play-offs, this tie could spell the end of Bosnia’s World Cup journey.
• But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time.
• Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage.
• Germany are rebuilding under fresh management and remain ever-dangerous.
• He just scores goals – 61 of them to be precise this season – and this summer he looks to be heading into the tournament in peak physical condition.
• South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early.
• These two traditional European heavyweights have a rich shared history on the international stage.
• But most of the favourites are set, with Lionel Messi hoping to help Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their crown.
• Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims.
• The USMNT leads the way once again at 2.45%, but there are 10 teams seen as more likely winners.
• Cape Verde are a 19/1 shot to cause one of the tournament’s great upsets.
• His squad have a 22.1% hope of making the last four, at which stage few would want to face them.

Pochettino has had no choice but to experiment – in November, Giovani Reyna’s return to the squad saw him become the 51st player to start a game for the USMNT in 2025. Pochettino’s side did reach the final of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, despite star names including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson missing the tournament. The USMNT appointed Pochettino after of a humiliating group-stage exit as Copa América hosts last year, and things did not immediately improve as the Argentine lost five of his first 10 matches at the helm. France became the sixth team to win the World Cup as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then. One recurring issue in recent years has been their lack of a true centre-forward. But Memphis Depay remains a talisman for his nation, becoming their all-time leading scorer when he netted his 51st international goal in September.

Study Team Tactics and Head-to-Head Results

Indeed, because Paraguay beat Germany on penalties yesterday, France will now face them in the R16. Live scores for every match of the 2026 World Cup, in your timezone. Whether you want to forecast the whole tournament, compete with friends, 2026 world cup or just watch the games — we’ve got you covered.

The best teams you won’t see at the 2026 World Cup

With 48 teams in 12 groups of 4, and a new Round of 32 stage, the path to the final is longer than ever. Eight knockout rounds for the eventual winners, compared to seven previously. Don’t be surprised if at least one traditional power exits before the quarter-finals. “Sweden began their group stage campaign with a 5-1 win against Tunisia, but they then lost 5-1 to the Netherlands. A 1-1 draw with Japan means they conceded seven games in three group stage games,” Green said. La Roja swept all before them, winning six of their seven matches inside 90 minutes and only requiring extra-time to eliminate hosts Germany in the quarter-final. They scored 15 goals in the tournament – four more than anyone else.

If he carries them past Iran and New Zealand, advancement is realistic. Iran and New Zealand lack the elite finishing required to truly threaten Belgium at the top. The Netherlands enter as a world‑class side looking to make a statement. The production of Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen should be enough to see them top the group.

• History is not on their side in this matchup, as Switzerland arrive with a full-strength side built on midfield physicality and an elite attacking presence in Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder.
• France beat Sweden 3-0 in a match that the model thought could get really out of hand, and it did.
• But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States.
• In 11 of the 12 groups, a team has been picked by at least 70% of entries in Yahoo Sports’ Soccer Pick ‘Em with Fox One.
• Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including the Champions League (+211.25) and Bundesliga (+100).
• The Opta supercomputer gave the reigning world champions a 77.9 percent chance of victory across 25,000 pre-match simulations.
• The picks weigh how each team actually performed, the strength of their group, and the bracket path ahead of them.
• Five-time winners Brazil are the only side to qualify for every edition of the World Cup, though the Seleção cut things a little too fine this time around, finishing fifth in CONMEBOL’s qualifiers.
• Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, defeating France in a breathtaking final that ended 3-3 after extra time before the Albiceleste won on penalties.

Brazil have rebuilt impressively since their disappointing 2022 quarter-final exit, with a generation of attacking talent led by Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and the teenage prodigy Endrick. France remain a tournament machine under Didier Deschamps’s successor, with Mbappé still in his prime and one of the deepest squads in world football. During World Cup qualification, you may notice that certain teams have already qualified for the main tournament which may mean that they use some squad players or experiment with their lineup. Furthermore, it can simply lead to a drop in motivation levels, especially if they face a team needing to win to earn a place in the World Cup Finals.

What are you most looking forward to outside of the games?

Our World Cup 2026 predictions land on France beating Argentina 2-1 in the July 19 final at New York New Jersey Stadium, a rematch of 2022. They face Ghana and could reach the quarterfinals without meeting a top seed. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who went home. South Africa and Egypt both reached the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time, while Turkiye finished bottom of Group D.

Panama vs England Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets

Vinicius Junior has battled inconsistency, while Raphinha’s form has been disrupted by injuries. That places significant responsibility on Joao Pedro, who has impressed at Chelsea, but it remains uncertain whether that will be enough, or even if he’s locked into the XI. Against a hungry and well‑organized Netherlands side, Brazil appear vulnerable, with this matchup favoring the Dutch. Ghana cannot be overlooked, as Antoine Semenyo provides genuine danger, but I expect the European sides to control this group with Ghana likely finishing as one of the best third-place teams. Colombia remain a threat thanks to Luis Diaz playing some of the best football of his career.

At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022. They are split into 12 groups of four, with 32 teams advancing to the knockout rounds. For the complete match-by-match schedule with dates, times, and venues, see our full World Cup 2026 fixtures guide. See here for an overview of which teams got luckiest and unluckiest based on where they slotted into the bracket.

But they should have too much for South Africa, even if their often erratic finishing threatens to leave the game in the balance. The disappointing campaign prompted President Lee to order a full review of the national team programme, describing the result as “deeply bewildering” and questioning both the team’s structure and Hong’s appointment. South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo has resigned following his side’s group-stage elimination from the World Cup, after coming under heavy criticism from President Lee Jae-myung. Morocco, meanwhile, arrive in a confident mood after beating Scotland and are aiming for back-to-back World Cup wins over European opponents for the first time. The Opta supercomputer makes Brazil the favourites to reach the next round.

• The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.
• The match result market is heavily skewed toward Argentina, who are available at the best price of 1/6 across nine leading operators.
• Despite beating Argentina in the 2022 group stage, Saudi Arabia may once again fall short of a top-two finish, which looks reserved for Uruguay.
• The comments came against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and the US following recent military attacks and a fragile ceasefire.
• According to Opta, Norway boasts the tournament’s highest expected goals (xG) per shot at 0.18, highlighting the quality of chances they have consistently created.
• We estimate each team’s chances by simulating the entire World Cup tournament thousands of times and counting how often a team wins the group, gets second, third and so on.
• There are not expected to be any surprises in the Germany XI for this match, with Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala set to continue as the front three.
• Then, in the United States, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle will be host cities.
• The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition.
• Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through.
• 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022.

Our free AI tip for Belgium vs Senegal — home team wins or draw, with 89% confidence. Our AI football predictions go far beyond World Cup 2026 matches, covering more than 160 competitions worldwide. In addition to the top eight favourites, there are two other teams given at least a 2% chance of winning the World Cup – Norway (2.3%) and Colombia (2.0%). The Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), and they are the eighth and final team assigned more than a 5% chance of triumphing next year, at 5.2%.

Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage. Stephen Eustaquio’s late goal sparked jubilant celebrations among the co-hosts, with head coach Jesse Marsch telling his players they had become “Canadian heroes” and inspired the next generation of footballers. Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent. The remaining 27.4 percent of simulations were level after 90 minutes, sending the match to extra time and, if necessary, penalties.

Next year, it will have been 24 years since Brazil last lifted the World Cup. They have only endured one previous drought of that length since first winning the tournament in 1958, between 1970 and 1994. A lack of recent match practice against top-class European opponents could count against the Albiceleste, who also saw Ángel Di María retire from international football after the Copa América. Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup.

South Africa (0.1%) are the joint 37th likeliest winners of the World Cup but still have a healthy 49.3% chance of making the knockouts, helped by being in a group where co-hosts Mexico are the top seeds. Ecuador (1.4%) are potentially tricky opponents who the top teams will want to avoid. They impressively finished second in South American qualifying and conceded just five goals in 18 matches. Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance. They are expected to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B.

Below are all of the confirmed matches for the Round of 32, with the schedule for when they are played and a prediction on each game. The 2026 World Cup will be the broadest, most competitive, and most logistically complex tournament ever staged. Picking a winner is harder than it has ever been, and that’s precisely what makes the build-up so compelling. Whatever your predictions, the only certainty is that we’ll all be surprised by something.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 nations and the first hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded format introduces 12 groups and a Round of 32 knockout stage, making it the biggest World Cup in history with 104 total matches played across 16 iconic venues. Looking ahead, many World Cup 2026 predictions point toward a final involving two European or South American giants. France and Brazil are often mentioned as likely finalists due to their squad depth and consistency in recent matches. Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit. England could also reach the final if their young squad maintains its current trajectory.

Fresh off a dominant qualifying cycle, England enter the tournament as one of the top six betting favourites to take home the most prestigious international title. Debutants Uzbekistan are seen as having a slightly better chance of impressing than the other new nations, as they have a 0.2% chance of going all the way. A more realistic aim might be getting through the groups after impressing in AFC qualification – beating out sides like Qatar and United Arab Emirates. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final.

Scotland could pose a threat with players like Scott McTominay and John McGinn, but they’re still at a disadvantage against better teams. They still should have enough to advance as one of the best third‑place teams ahead of Haiti. The 2026 World Cup will be the first tournament to feature 48 teams, expanding from the traditional 32-team format used from 1998 through 2022. This change significantly alters both the group stage and the knockout bracket. Group-by-group odds, knockout stage forecasts, and tapados watch — all powered by FIFA rankings, ELO ratings, and past tournament performance.

Morocco, meanwhile, are the highest-rated African team after they were superbly shock semi-finalists in Qatar. Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims. And the 38-year-old has continued to post stunning MLS numbers for Inter Miami over recent seasons as he prepares to lead his nation. With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals. The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong. France have reached the final in four of the last seven editions – twice as often as any other nation during that period – and it would be a surprise if they were not there or thereabouts once again.